Friday, June 01, 2007

the base

Overheard from Jim Henley:

George Bush’s popularity is now at the Margin of Crazification discussed on Kung Fu Monkey back in 2005 and again early this year:
John: Hey, Bush is now at 37% approval. I feel much less like Kevin McCarthy screaming in traffic. But I wonder what his base is –

Tyrone: 27%.

John: … you said that immediately, and with some authority.

Tyrone: Obama vs. Alan Keyes. Keyes was from out of state, so you can eliminate any established political base; both candidates were black, so you can factor out racism; and Keyes was plainly, obviously, completely crazy. Batshit crazy. Head-trauma crazy. But 27% of the population of Illinois voted for him. They put party identification, personal prejudice, whatever ahead of rational judgment. Hell, even like 5% of Democrats voted for him. That’s crazy behaviour. I think you have to assume a 27% Crazification Factor in any population.
Via comments at OTB. Theoretically, Bush cannot get less popular than this.
What Jim is overlooking is that 90% of that 27% hates hates hates the idea of granting illegal immigrants legal status. As Bush pushes harder for comprehensive reform, we may see him dip below this floor as even the die-hards peel off.

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